Live, not a backtest
Every forecast scored here was archived before the 12:00 Kyiv day-ahead gate on the day before delivery, and none has been recomputed since. The scoring rules are frozen, and no month is left out of the score.
Delivery days Jun 21, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 · Recomputed Sep 28, 2026
rMAE against the seasonal-naive benchmark
0.995
95% CI 0.992–0.997
Verdict under the frozen rule: beats seasonal-naive at n = 13
Months are not chosen: the table lists every calendar month of the window, each with its own n, dates and confidence interval. An rMAE above 1 means the forecast erred more than the benchmark that month.
| Month | Days | rMAE (95% CI) | MAE forecast / benchmark | Bias | Days better / worse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | No scored delivery day in this month. | ||||
| July 2026Jul 08, 2026 – Jul 20, 2026 | 13 | 0.9950.992–0.997 | 1,201.5 / 1,207.7 | -108.7 | 10 / 3 |
| August 2026 | No scored delivery day in this month. | ||||
| September 2026 | No scored delivery day in this month. | ||||
MAE and bias in UAH/MWh.
Excluded days are named on every recompute and never filled in after the fact.
The rules were fixed on Sep 23, 2026, after an informal first look at this same archive. Nobody had seen the deliveries from Sep 24, 2026 on at that point; they are reported on their own, with their own verdict, once 60 of them are scored.
Scored so far: 0 of 60.
