Ukraine ↔ EU · DAM · IDM · coupling

Turn live market inputs into an auditable next action.

Built for traders, risk desks, and BESS teams: live OREE DAM/IDM prices, ENTSO-E flows, and attributed CC-BY regional context become a forecast band, thresholds, and an inspectable decision package. A person approves every action; Alvo submits no order and sends no market data to an external model.

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OREE + ENTSO-E — livesources and assumptions includedhuman approval required
Trading assistant15 Jul 2026 · Illustrative fixture · not a live reading
Recomputable
Average spread6,856 ₴/MWh
Plan positions4 / 24 h
SourceOREE DAM · sample
BUY14:00 4,478 ₴
SELL21:00 13,300 ₴
AIbrief, export, audit

Illustrative package · not live data

Where 137,125 ₴ comes from — down to the formula.

All amounts in Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH ₴)

Inspect inputs, timestamps, formula, and approval stateIllustrative result: +137,125 ₴Recomputable
Trade date
15 Jul 2026
Market / zone
DAM · UA-IPS
Volume
5 MWh per position · 20 MWh total
Fees / threshold
12 ₴/MWh per leg · minimum net 250 ₴/MWh
Source timestamp
Synthetic OREE-shaped fixture · 14 Jul 2026, 19:00 UTC
Forecast status / band
Illustrative P10–P90 4,200 ₴/MWh–13,100 ₴/MWh · issued 14 Jul 2026, 18:30 UTC
Human approval
Pending human review · automatic submission off
Average net spread
6,856.25 ₴/MWh
Formula

For each position: ((sell − buy) − 2 × fee) × volume

Σ result = 137,125 ₴

PositionBuySellGross spread2 × feeNet spreadResult
114:00 · 4,478 ₴/MWh21:00 · 13,300 ₴/MWh8,822 ₴/MWh−24 ₴/MWh8,798 ₴/MWh43,990 ₴
203:00 · 5,200 ₴/MWh19:00 · 11,824 ₴/MWh6,624 ₴/MWh−24 ₴/MWh6,600 ₴/MWh33,000 ₴
304:00 · 5,600 ₴/MWh20:00 · 11,924 ₴/MWh6,324 ₴/MWh−24 ₴/MWh6,300 ₴/MWh31,500 ₴
405:00 · 6,000 ₴/MWh22:00 · 11,751 ₴/MWh5,751 ₴/MWh−24 ₴/MWh5,727 ₴/MWh28,635 ₴

The result shown is only the arithmetic output of illustrative inputs. It does not guarantee P&L, forecast accuracy, or price availability.

Download JSONForecast-band methodology

Measured accuracy

Forecast track record

All hours and the H17–H21 evening peak are shown together. Bias always keeps its sign.

Measured through · 7-day lag

UA

€/MWh

Scored days: 10

All hoursn=240 hours
MAE
31.83
wMAPE
27.3%
Bias
-13.07

Negative bias — we forecast below the realized price.

31.83 vs 31.83 · seasonal-naive benchmark: no candidate beat it significantly, so the model we serve is the benchmark itself. Candidate sets differ by market.

Evening peak · H17–H21n=50 hours
MAE
40.84
wMAPE
24.3%
Bias
-15.87

Negative bias — we forecast below the realized price.

40.84 vs 40.84 · seasonal-naive benchmark: no candidate beat it significantly, so the model we serve is the benchmark itself. Candidate sets differ by market.

PL

€/MWh

Scored days: 10

All hoursn=240 hours
MAE
69.78
wMAPE
46.1%
Bias
+14.77

Positive bias — we forecast above the realized price.

69.78 vs 69.78 · seasonal-naive benchmark: no candidate beat it significantly, so the model we serve is the benchmark itself. Candidate sets differ by market.

Evening peak · H17–H21n=50 hours
MAE
89.91
wMAPE
40.3%
Bias
+14.36

Positive bias — we forecast above the realized price.

89.91 vs 89.91 · seasonal-naive benchmark: no candidate beat it significantly, so the model we serve is the benchmark itself. Candidate sets differ by market.

HU

€/MWh

Scored days: 10

All hoursn=240 hours
MAE
48.16
wMAPE
27.1%
Bias
+0.52

Positive bias — we forecast above the realized price.

48.16 vs 48.16 · seasonal-naive benchmark: no candidate beat it significantly, so the model we serve is the benchmark itself. Candidate sets differ by market.

Evening peak · H17–H21n=50 hours
MAE
58.82
wMAPE
24.4%
Bias
+6.82

Positive bias — we forecast above the realized price.

58.82 vs 58.82 · seasonal-naive benchmark: no candidate beat it significantly, so the model we serve is the benchmark itself. Candidate sets differ by market.

Rolling backtest: forecasts recomputed over historical dates. Forecast-versus-actual measurement with a 7-day lag — not a live signal or a guarantee. Model selection: the scored dates were excluded from candidate ranking and promotion.

Platform

Solid data foundation

Official sources, CSV import, and future approved integrations are shaped into a clean market data layer.

Speed to decision

Spreads, volume, thresholds, fees, and expected P&L are calculated so the team sees the action without noise.

Platform that scales

The price and schedule model is already compatible with BESS, APIs, backtesting, and future automation.

Strong control

Security headers, server validation, audit logs, and no automatic order submission in v1.

Markets & coverage

More than DAM: one loop for multiple markets and forecasting.

Spot trading volume grew: 2025 DAM+IDM volume hit 33.51 TWh, +21.95% vs 2024 — a second consecutive year above +20%. OREE annual report ·

DAMLive
Day-ahead market

Official OREE prices, spread plan, and an AI brief for every hour.

IDMLive
Intraday market

DAM/IDM market switch in the workspace to adjust the plan.

ForecastLive
Price forecasting

A forecast layer over official data — validated on history.

BMLive/Demo
Balancing market

An imbalance-risk signal so you can adjust the position in time: it prefers Ukrenergo settled imbalance prices via Energy Map; ENTSO-E A85 is the fallback source.

BESSPilot
Storage optimization

State of charge, cycles, degradation, and charge/discharge schedule over live DAM prices; reserve legs use illustrative assumptions, not market readings.

See it in the demo

Architecture

Strong product architecture: speed, control, and AI automation as separate layers.

Market data layer

Live OREE adapter and CSV import with normalization, validation, and caching.

Decision engine

Spread detection, fees, thresholds, limits, BESS-ready constraints.

AI operations

Trading brief, anomaly notes, automation suggestions, deterministic fallback.

Control plane

Human approval, audit trail, RBAC-ready actions, no unsafe submit in v1.

Workflow

From official prices to a trader decision.

The first release already covers DAM, IDM, forecasting, and an imbalance-risk signal — without legally risky automatic order submission.

01

Load market data

Public OREE prices run live.

02

Find spreads

The algorithm selects low/high hours with thresholds, fees, and limits applied.

03

Explain through AI

The AI brief creates a summary, checklist, anomalies, and next automations.

04

Export + audit

The plan exports to CSV, and key actions are written to the audit trail.

Roadmap

DAM, IDM, forecasting, and a BM signal already work. BESS planning and API access are already in the product, and the web workspace is free during the beta — just sign in. Next: automation.

V1 · nowMulti-market assistant

DAM and IDM, price forecasting, imbalance-risk signal, AI brief, CSV export, audit trail.

V2 · pilotBESS optimization

SoC, power, cycles, degradation, and charge/discharge over DAM prices.

V3 · APIMarket intelligence API

Backtesting, signals API, and white-label analytics for market participants.

Official integration

Integrate gradually: public data now, approved channels after legal review.

To start, Alvo reads open market data and does not act on behalf of a trader. The next level is official access, agreements, keys, action logs, and roles.

Legal firstLicensing, contract terms, liability, and NEURC regulations are checked before automated trading.
Controlled accessAPI keys, scoped permissions, IP allowlists, and secrets stored only on the server.
API-ready productOwn API for signals, backtests, BESS optimization, and white-label analytics.

Security & compliance

Control first. Automation next.

Alvo v1 does not submit orders. It speeds up decisions, records actions, and prepares the foundation for future approved integrations.

Security headers, typed validation, no unsafe order submit.
Audit trail for AI briefs, exports, and data refreshes.
Deterministic decision and automation engine: explanations, signals, and checklists are reproducible and verifiable.
Sovereign AI
Deterministic AI · book never leaves · $0 external tokens
  • Deterministic AIThe decision engine is deterministic and reproducible — no external LLM.
  • Book never leavesYour order book and prices stay inside the perimeter — zero external data egress.
  • $0 external tokensNo third-party provider tokens — AI cost per brief is zero.
  • Only what we can proveThe forecast clears a Giacomini-White gate against the naive baseline and a band-coverage check; a candidate that misses the significance bar is not published.

Economics

Moves fast and shows money and risk without extra clicks.

Daily net P&L+137kUAH

Illustrative example, not an actual result: 4 recommended pairs

Average spread6,856UAH/MWh

Illustrative example: after fees and thresholds

Time to decision< 60sec

Data, plan, AI brief, export

Control100%

Human approval in v1

Talk to the team

Request a pilot or a demo for your case

The demo workspace is already open — and the live walkthrough for your tasks (DAM/IDM, risk, BESS, or API) we'll do together. Leave a contact and we'll be in touch.

Leave a contact — we'll walk Alvo through your tasks (DAM/IDM, risk, BESS, or API) and answer your questions. The demo workspace is already open, but the live walkthrough we'll do together.

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API preview

Building this as a market platform, not a one-page demo.

POST /v1/market/dam/brief
{
  "zone": "IPS",
  "date": "2026-05-13",
  "volumeMwh": 5,
  "mode": "human_approval"
}
Open API docs OpenAPI JSON
Strategy Plan APIPOST /api/strategy/plan returns a DAM plan, P&L, trades, and net spread.
BESS Plan APIPOST /api/bess/plan calculates storage arbitrage, cycles, charge/discharge, and profit.
Risk Report APIPOST /api/risk/report returns a guardrails score, blockers, review items, and human approval status.
Signals APIBuy/sell hours, confidence, P&L, and explanations.
BESS APISoC, charge/discharge, degradation-aware optimization.
Audit APIEvents, approvals, exports, AI briefs, immutable-ready trail.

FAQ

Key questions for the Ukrainian market.

Does Alvo submit orders automatically?

No. V1 works as decision support: analysis, explanations, export, and audit trail. Order submission remains under trader control.

Do we need a license?

Usually not for analytics software, but electricity trading and representing a market participant require separate legal review.

Where do prices come from?

Today, from public Market Operator DAM/IDM data. Later we can add ENTSO-E, Energy Map, CSV, private sources, and internal client data.

Why AI?

AI compresses the market into actions: summary, risks, anomalies, checklist, and next automations. Calculations remain deterministic and verifiable.

How much does Alvo cost?

Alvo is free during the beta. Market data and the demo are open without an account; the next-day forecast, AI briefs, BESS planning, and exports open after a free sign-up. We are not taking payments right now: we are building up data and learning from real use.

Ready to see Alvo in action?

Open the workspace, review the hindsight AI brief for the last completed day, export the plan, and inspect the audit trail. Generating a brief for current and forward decisions only needs sign-in. Custom forecasts from CSV, BESS planning, and API access are already in the product, and the whole web workspace is free during the beta.

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